Earthflow Underwriter — Reinsurance Edition

Insured Asset

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Capacity

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COD

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Cedent

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TIV

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Layer

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Period

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Live Satellite View · Esri World Imagery

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Maxar · Earthstar Geographics · z=16

Site Footprint

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Distance to Coast

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FEMA Flood Zone

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Seismic SDC

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Composite Risk GradeiComposite Risk GradeA 0–100 score and letter grade synthesizing all 12 perils, weighted by each peril's AAL contribution. The verdict (Bind · Bind w/ Subjectivities · Refer · Decline) follows a deterministic decision tree applied after the stochastic loss aggregation.14 risk modules + kpi_analysis.py composite + verdict rulesFirst-look bind / refer / decline triage in one number

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—/100

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Peril Decomposition · 12 Perilsi12-Peril DecompositionEvery peril scored 0–100 with AAL contribution, trend arrow, and 24-month sparkline. Click any tile to expand the Evidence Drawer — see the underlying data source, refresh timestamp, and short methodology line per peril.Physics AI™ engine · NEXRAD · NREL Wind Toolkit · USGS ASCE · FEMA NFHL · NIFC · SCADA · BMSIdentifies the dominant peril(s) · targets subjectivities · auditable to source Earthflow modules · 14 risk · 8 detection

Loss Economics · StochasticiStochastic Loss AggregationMonte Carlo simulation across 10⁴–10⁶ synthetic years producing AAL ± 1σ, PML 1-in-100/250, TVaR 99%, the exceedance-probability curve, and TVaR-by-peril attribution. Toggle the mitigation pills below the curve to see net-of-mitigation deltas.loss_curves.py · Stage 3 aggregation preserving peril correlationsLayer attachment · treaty capacity · tail-driver attribution

AAL—

AAL ±1σ band—

PML 1-in-100—

PML 1-in-250—

TVaR (99%)—

Reinst-adj PML—

TVaR by peril:

Premium GuidanceiPremium GuidanceTechnical rate = (AAL / TIV) + risk load + expense load + capital charge against PML 1-in-250. The per-peril deductible matrix reflects the recommended subjectivities for this site.Stage 4 financial layer · market-calibrated load factorsIndicated rate benchmarked vs the cedent's portfolio book

Technical Rate

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Indicated Premium

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Construction Phase Dashboard · CAR/EAR + DSUiCAR/EAR + DSU Construction ViewActive when Phase = Construction and the site has a construction block. COD countdown, DSU revenue-at-risk curve, EPC performance scorecard, supply-chain status, 90-day weather-delay forecast, and 6-phase Sentinel-2 imagery timeline.Earthflow Detect phase_analyzer.py · 3-source weather (NOAA + NREL + Open-Meteo) · EPC / CMMS feedCAR/EAR + DSU pricing · schedule-risk transparency · supply-chain alerts phase_analyzer.py · Sentinel-2 + 3-source weather

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Days to COD

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DSU Revenue at Risk · per day of delay

Daily revenue loss (P50)—

90-day cumulative—

EPC Performance Scorecard

Supply Chain Statusmodule + BOS inventory

90-day Weather Delay ForecastOpen-Meteo + NOAA

Parametric Triggers · Live Distance-to-ThresholdiParametric Trigger PricingPre-agreed sensor thresholds with live distance-to-trigger gauges. Drag any slider to re-price the technical rate in real time. Common triggers: hail kinetic energy, sustained wind, GHI underperformance, BESS cell ΔT, storm-surge depth.NEXRAD MESH · NWS gauges · on-site weather + BMS · parametric_pricer.js5-day settlement velocity vs 9-month indemnity claims average NOAA · NEXRAD · NREL POA

⚡ Settlement velocity: Parametric triggers settle in 5 business days vs. 9-month average for indemnity claims · radically faster liquidity to the cedent post-event.

IoT / Condition Monitoring · Predictive MaintenanceiIoT Condition MonitoringLive inverter health grid, string-level fault tree, BESS cell ΔT, on-site weather station POA + hail detector, EL scan schedule, and predictive-failure alerts. All telemetry is read-only by architectural design.SCADA Modbus TCP · BMS REST/MQTT · weather station — see Data & Cyber methodologyCatches breakdown signals before they become claims · feeds energy-shortfall trigger iot_stream_aggregator · SCADA + EL scans

Inverter Health Gridhealthy · watch · fault · predicted-failure

BESS Thermal Healthcell-level BMS

On-site Weather StationPOA + hail detector

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Predictive-Maintenance Alertslast 7 days

Equipment Pedigree · Reinsurance Audit TemplateiEquipment PedigreeModule + inverter + racking + BESS spec template covering Tier-1 status, ASTM E1038 hail class, glass thickness, frame, MTBF, certifications, stow capability, warranty backing, and BESS chemistry/BMS. Modeled on reinsurance factory-audit conventions (Munich Re, Swiss Re, HSB), not a specific published rubric.EPC bill-of-materials · manufacturer spec sheets · Earthflow Detect satellite as-built verificationCounterparty + warranty assessment · drives Stage 2 vulnerability mitigation factors equipment_pedigree.py · Tier-1 + ASTM E1038

Climate Scenario Stress Test · 30-yr HorizoniClimate Scenario Stress TestRCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 horizons across 7 time periods (today → 2055) for the composite and the most climate-sensitive perils (hail frequency, hurricane intensity, wildfire season-length, sea-level rise).CMIP6 ensemble · NEX-GDDP downscaling · LOCA2 (CONUS)Long-dated treaty pricing · climate-uplift reserve · TCFD / ISSB-aligned RCP 4.5 / 8.5 · TCFD · ISSB · CMIP6

Today

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2055

Treaty Fit · Portfolio AggregationiTreaty Fit MetricsFour-metric scorecard against the cedent's existing book — aggregate concentration, top-5 correlation, diversification benefit, and layer-attachment band fit. Computed via portfolio Monte Carlo with peril correlations preserved (not naive AAL summation).Cedent bordereau · correlation-preserving portfolio aggregationBordereau aggregation · concentration / capacity allocation decisions cedent book · 4-metric scorecard